You are no doubt familiar with the old saw “The only constant is change,” which dates as far back as the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus. But lately, it seems that in many aspects of our lives the rate of change is itself increasing – what mathematicians would describe as an “increasing increase.” Most people and organizations can deal with a certain amount of change, but if the rate of change continues to increase, things can quickly get out of control and become overwhelming. Indeed, as Jack Welch famously noted of organizations, “If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, then the end is near.”

Such rapid and increasing change naturally breeds a higher degree of uncertainty – of what the relevant facts will be in the future, and what should be done now to better prepare. In organizations today, we see a wealth of uncertainty coming from both external sources (e.g., wild stock market swings, rising commodity costs, changes and lack of clarity from regulations, altered growth expectations) and internal sources (e.g., shifts in strategic plans and priorities, changes in your workforce.)

So what is an HR professional or line-of-business manager, focused on the organization’s most valuable resource – its people – supposed to do in the face of such massive change and uncertainty? What is needed in order to make the best short-, medium-, and long-term strategic talent management decisions to chart a course through these stormy waters? A hint at the answer comes from noting what other parts of the organization have and that you lack: data, information, intelligence.

Ask yourself these questions: Does IT know more about the organization’s laptops than you do about the organization’s talent? Is this ideal? Are you OK with this state of affairs?

Talent Intelligence and Hurricanes
Consider an analogy to the great improvements we’ve seen in hurricane forecasting over the past few decades. If you pay attention to such weather phenomena you’ve likely heard the concept “Cone of Uncertainty.” This is used to show the range of paths that the latest computer models predict a hurricane is likely to take. The result is a cone-like shape on a map where the further in time and distance from its current location, the less certainty the models can provide.

A recent posting at IEEE Spectrum’s Tech Talk blog describes how much the technology has improved in recent years. Such improved hurricane “systems and intelligence” have meant that the 2-day predictions of a hurricane’s track are as accurate now as 1-day predictions were ten years ago, thereby enabling weather forecasters to better warn citizens of the likely path of destruction, reduce property damage, and even save lives. Now ask yourself: have you seen a similar degree of improvement in the talent intelligence you have available as an HR professional or line-of-business manager?

Consider the following ways that robust talent intelligence is important amidst the increasing change and uncertainty your organization faces:

• Even in states and countries with persistent high unemployment, key positions are becoming increasingly hard to fill – talent intelligence helps recruiters source the best talent from external or internal sources.
• A lack of talent intelligence inhibits robust and systematic talent mobility programs to support retention of top performers.
• Organizations often struggle to build out deep talent pools to support the succession planning they need not only for top executives, but for all critical positions.
• Outdated performance management approaches that revolve around annual or even twice-yearly goal reviews simply cannot keep up with the pace of change and the needs for career development of today’s workforce.
•  The rate of change and uncertainty about the future means learning and development must evolve from a mix that is heavy on formal training to one that better enables informal and social learning.

Scientists have been enabled to better face their weather forecasting challenges with improved hurricane intelligence. It is time that HR professionals and line-of-business managers demand similarly strong talent intelligence provided by the best talent management practices and systems. Only armed with such resources can they adapt to the increasing change and uncertainty they face and provide strategic support to the organization.

Talent Intelligence, 9/11, and Strategic Shocks
During periods of great change and uncertainty, providing talent intelligence and strong talent management practices and systems are critical – but there is also the threat of what Sir Robert Fry refers to as “strategic shocks.” Fry is former deputy commander of the Coalition forces in Iraq and chairman of global business performance consultancy McKinney Rogers. In his article The Battle for Business, Fry describes a strategic shock as an event that significantly changes how we think and live our lives on an individual and corporate level. He describes two examples from the past decade: 9/11 and 2008’s global financial crisis. He notes that such strategic shocks in general can be caused by pre-meditated events or by accident, but what is essential is that no one can predict their exact form or timing. They will inevitably occur, but their unpredictability makes it difficult to forecast their impact on the organization afterward.

Fry notes that to minimize the effects of such shocks, organizations must link vision to practical execution, providing a shared understanding of strategy and making sure everyone in the organization is aligned to that strategy. Responding effectively to such events further requires speed and agility, and this is predicated on having the appropriate processes, systems, and people in place beforehand. Doing so will provide the organization with the potential to react effectively when the inevitable but unpredictable “strategic shock” event actually occurs.

Picking up on the 9/11 example, we all learned lessons in the weeks and months that followed regarding both IT and talent readiness. Some of the IT success stories were from organizations that had planned ahead by having redundant, geographical dispersed data centers. Organizations have learned from that best practice, as well as others relating to cloning and data backup techniques, power supply backup, and security measures (both digital and physical).

Similarly, that horrible event also made clear the importance of key talent management practices, such as the need for widespread succession planning, deep talent pools, and cross training. In the months that followed, organizations directly impacted by 9/11 needed to enact the succession plans that they had in place, but then also recruit top talent quickly and efficiently, onboard those employees effectively, align their goals to the organization’s strategy and objectives, and then develop all employees so as to better insulate the organization against future “strategic shocks.”

By now, ten years later, savvy organizations have unified talent management systems that are cloud-based, thereby reducing the risk of many potential strategic shocks. The Talent Intelligence obtained from such systems informs decision making by both HR professionals and line-of-business managers to reshape their workforce based on relevant, timely data. Such insight at the point of action enables far greater adaptability in the face of change, uncertainty, and yes, even strategic shocks. To what extent is your organization enabled and prepared in this way?

To learn more about how you can best handle increasing change and uncertainty, and how to help insulate your organization from the effects of strategic shocks, please join Taleo and Sir Robert Fry at the HR Breakfast Briefing on September 20th in London.