Economic uncertainty reigns. But one thing you can depend on is the list of obligatory predictions as we close a disastrous 2008 and fearfully embark on 2009. Although most predictions are, well predictable—we’ve got roiling economic seas ahead—some are specific. Here’s some excerpts:

Herman Trend Alert: 2009 Workforce/Workplace Forecast includes:
Certain Skill Sets Continue to be in Short Supply.
Some Employers will make Serious Mistakes, Threatening their Very Survival.
and
Wise Companies will use this Time Well to Build Bench Strength.

Among Josh Bersin’s insights for 2009:
Succession Management Emerges as a Critical Issue.

Garner predicts:
By 2011, Organizations That Do Not Manage Their Employer Brands Effectively Will Fail to Attract Key Talent
and
…by 2013, More than 25 percent of the Content that Workers See in a Day will be Dominated by Pictures, Video or Audio

With an eye more toward what to do in 2009, a Taleo Research/HCI survey asked what will be your organization’s main focus in 2009.

It seems that 2009 will be a time to retain and motivate existing talent. That’s a good plan in the light of economic events. Now, as the calendar turns, we need to put the performance management practices—including career and succession planning—in place to make it so.

Many companies are surviving the economic turmoil and looking for opportunities, according to McKinsey Global Survey Results: Economic conditions snapshot, November 2008. In particular, there's a renewed focus on innovation which may be a key driver of economic recovery. Innovation occurs in many ways: the development of new products or services, or in new ways to approach challenges. Here are some interesting examples:

Why an Economic Crisis Could Be the Right Time for Companies to Engage in 'Disruptive Innovation' describes the difference between incremental and disruptive innovation and how real transformation comes from challenging the paradigm with creative destruction, powered by teamwork and human knowledge.

Speaking of teamwork and human knowledge, A New Odd Couple: Google, P&G Swap Workers to Spur Innovation explains how two leaders in completely different markets are doing an informal talent exchange with people in the areas of planning and training.

Assessing innovation metrics: McKinsey Global Survey Results shows that organizations with the highest returns from innovation use metrics to assess innovation more comprehensively.

Employers innovate to reduce job losses shows how European companies are getting creative with alternatives to across the board jobs cuts and retaining their top talent.

And, as we outlined in Don’t Lose Your Head When You Tighten Your Belt:
Upgrading talent says that downturns put your whole talent strategy at jeopardy due to knee-jerk downsizing, but also offer opportunities to upgrade talent and boost your employment brand at a time when top talent becomes available.

What’s the Take on Innovation and Talent Management? Talent Powers Innovation, and is the best way to fuel business performance and value creation.

News of mass layoffs is everywhere and you can start using the official R word– the recession in fact started in December 2007. But you’ve been here before if you experienced the economic downturns in 2000-2002, 1991-1993, and 1981-1983.

The significant talent management question then is: how does your organization adjust your talent management practices for success in a recessionary economy and in the following economic recovery?

Corporate actions in past recessions, especially around layoffs, left negative impressions of many corporate brands, and caused erosion in employee loyalty and productivity. Those lessons learned from past mistakes apply during these more transparent times.

But this recession may be different due to factors such as:
• A more interconnected global economy.
• Having to manage four generations at work.
• Instant global communications which can impact an employer brand.
• Ubiquitous technology for networking that gives top talent easy access to more employment choices.
• More local and global virtual work.
• The breadth of business sectors worldwide affected by the downturn.

Taleo Research and HCI will present new research findings and discuss the strategies to get through these times and position organizations to accelerate as the economy improves. Register for The Economic Impact on Talent Management webcast on Friday, December 12, 2008 / 12:00 noon - 1:00 p.m. ET.

HR has been encouraged to become more conversant with—and dependent on—data: metrics, statistics, and benchmarks. And that’s a good thing, but the numbers themselves often don’t tell the story. It’s the analysis, perspective, and context that changes data from raw information into intelligence.

Break Away From Paradigm Blindness explains the pros and cons of three popular benchmarks: Employee Net Promoter Score, Gallup Q12, and Walker Loyalty. Each can provide beneficial insights. However, to gain maximum value for your organization’s needs, it’s important to understand their strengths and weaknesses. Making good policy and strategy decisions should evaluate “the facts” and consider them in light of organizational goals.

Single number statistics also can be misleading. Although the data may be accurate, lacking trend information and context can drive the wrong conclusion. The HR Capitalist’s blog 64 Percent Turnover... Sometimes That's Pretty Good... describes just that.

Good metrics should be:
• Aligned with business
• Actionable and predictive
• Consistent
• Time trackable
• Peer comparable

The data is the first step but in isolation may not provide value. You can use sophisticated reporting and analytics platforms to support good decision-making and turn information into intelligence.

Amidst generally gloomy economic news, the latest Business Confidence Survey of owners and managers of US small and medium-sized businesses is not so dire: more than 37 percent of owners and managers of small and medium-sized businesses expect a higher rate of growth for their operations in 2009, and 38 percent anticipate the same level of growth as 2008.

The business owners’ five biggest concerns:
1. The economy
2. Controlling costs
3. Rising health care costs
4. Retaining their most valued employees
5. Hiring the right people

Retention strategies include improving employee engagement through specially designed performance management practices. Quality of hire is driven by a fast and effective recruitment process. Business owners know that higher retention and hiring top talent link directly to business results.

Improving talent management practices and solutions is a timely and welcome approach for small and mid-sized businesses. Effective talent management practices supported by web-based robust technology solutions directly address some of the biggest concerns of small and medium-sized businesses—and help drive their performance.