Predicting the future is more art than science, but it can be instructive to speculate on scenarios and extrapolate on trends. In the PricewaterhouseCoopers study Managing tomorrow’s people*: The future of work to 2020 three key themes emerged:

1. Business models will change dramatically.
2. People management will present one of the greatest business challenges.
3. The role of HR will undergo fundamental change.

The report paints HR in the corporate landscape as passively standing at a crossroads with its service baggage where it will choose to become the heart of the organization, drive social responsibility, or get outsourced for acting too transactional while retaining the people sourcing function.

In line with these themes, unified talent management offers HR a combined process, strategic, and bottom line approach to become the heart of business performance. It’s part of our vision of The Future of Talent Management: The Four Stages of Evolution.

Rich man, poor man,
Beggar man, thief.
Doctor, lawyer,
Indian chief!

That’s the traditional counting rhyme. Depending on which positions you are trying to fill, here’s some interesting rankings of job types: wanted or not, easy and hard to fill, and those in demand:

The 10 Hardest Jobs to Fill Worldwide, as reported by employers for 2008:
1. Skilled Manual Trades
2. Sales Representatives
3. Technicians
4. Engineers
5. Management/Executives
6. Laborers
7. Secretaries/Administrative Assistants
8. Drivers
9. Accounting & Finance Staff
10. IT Staff

The top 5 of the Top 20 Most Recession-Proof Professions:
1. Sales Representative/Business Development
2. Software Design/Development
3. Nursing
4. Accounting & Finance Executive
5. Accounting Staff

The occupations at the top of the Most Prestigious Occupations list:
• Firefighter (57% say "very great prestige");
• Scientist (56%);
• Doctor (53%);
• Nurse (52%);
• Teacher (52%)
When the numbers for "very great" and "considerable prestige" are added, all of these occupations are very favorably regarded by 74 percent or more of all adults.

The Least Prestigious Occupations:
Only 15 percent or fewer adults regard the following occupations as having very great prestige:
• Real estate agent/broker (6%);
• Stock broker (10%);
• Banker (15%);
• Accountant (15%);
• Entertainer (15%)
Substantial majorities of adults (from 61% to 83%) believe that these occupations have "hardly any" or only "some" prestige.

But there are also trends that bear watching. It’s a good time to be an IT worker. Green industries offer job growth opportunity. And the Federal commission calls for two million poll workers. Let’s hope they do a better job hiring for those positions than when the Justice Department hired lawyers!

Eighty-five percent (85%) of employers concerned with hiring creative people say they can't find the applicants they seek.

This quote comes from The Conference Board: Ready to Innovate: Are Educators and Executives Aligned on the Creative Readiness of the U.S. Workforce?

While spontaneity, poise, and enthusiasm may play well in interviews, there are better ways to consistently gauge creativity across a wider range of candidates:

• Interdisciplinary history of abilities, certifications, and experience.
• Problem identification, analysis, and articulation.
• Focused assessments and prescreening exercises.

HR and recruiters need to think creatively when designing their employment brands, attracting creative talent, and building optimal profiles based on traits of their own high performers. They also need a consistent and disciplined hiring process.

For the strategy to succeed, close the loop between the recruiting and performance process so you recruit and review on the same system to drive quality of hire.

Stephen J. Dubner of Freakonomics fame weighs in on measuring innovation and asks some experts for their opinions. Note Seth Godin’s take; it applies to innovation, talent management…and life in general:

"Innovation happens long before the benefit is realized… And if we embrace the process, not the event, we win."

At The New Yorker Conference themed Stories from the Near Future, the ever-perceptive Malcolm Gladwell focused on hiring as the biggest challenge for organizations and called it a collective crisis.

In this video of his presentation, Gladwell uses the sports analogy of scouting combine events to talk about the assessment process in hiring. His stories about attending hockey, basketball, and football combines provide insights into how you can do a better job of scouting your talent.

“In order to make that assessment, you feel you need to gather some objective data about who this kid is and what he can do. As much as that makes sense, is it true? Scouting combines are a disaster…”

Unless you represent one of the dozens of professional sports teams in the world, you may ask what does this have to do with hiring assessments? Plenty. It’s all about what he calls The Mismatch Problem:

“It is when the criteria we use to assess someone’s ability to do a job are radically out of step with the actual demands of the job itself.”

How do you deal with the problem and find a solution?

“Wait until they do their job and analyze them when they are on the job.”

Gladwell’s observations align perfectly with the need for a unified approach to recruiting and performance management. Once you are able to gather the attributes of your top performers and translate them into recruiting assessment criteria, then you can mitigate The Mismatch Problem and drive higher performance. “Life has become more complex…We want profoundly different things from workers today than we have in the past” comments Gladwell, “…but the way we hire has largely remained simplistic.”

For a lighter view of The Mismatch Problem, read Peter Norvig’s tongue-in-cheek fictitious performance review for a Patent Clerk Third Class position in the Bern Patent Office: Albert Einstein. It’s a very nice parody, but also a great talent example of missed opportunity and mismatch while demonstrating the real value of performance reviews done correctly.

There may be wacky excuses for missing a day of work and getting caught sleeping in your cubicle. But there’s no excuse for non-compliance in your hiring process. From OFCCP to I-9, you’ve got to stay current on recruiting compliance risks and rewards.

The New Components of Compliance points out that compliance awareness is not optional, and lists 10 factors to improve compliance with OFCCP regulations that can get you on the way to reducing risk and exposure. Deferring the technology investment can cost a lot more than just your peace of mind.

“In 2006 and 2007 combined, the OFCCP collected more than $100 million in settlements from federal contractors with noncompliant recruitment and hiring practices.”

Compliance 101: Work-Eligibility Verification and the IRCA offers ideas on staying ahead of the game with employment eligibility I-9 verification in the US. Stay aware of changes in your state as new laws can require immediate compliance.

When it comes to hiring compliance, there are no excuses. You need a systematic process that captures data and delivers a consistent approach across your company.